The copper price forecast for 2027 is not one number. Goldman Sachs has copper averaging US$15,400 per tonne in 2027. J.P. Morgan has it at US$13,800. That US$1,600 gap, between two banks looking at the same tight market, is the most useful thing an investor can study when sizing up copper.

What the major banks are forecasting for copper in 2027

Start with who moved. Goldman Sachs lifted its 2027 average LME copper forecast to US$15,400 per tonne from US$13,800. It cited weaker-than-expected mine supply and deficits outside the United States, as the United States and China compete for refined copper (Reuters, via MINING.COM, 20 October 2026).

J.P. Morgan Commodities Research’s latest copper forecast table has copper averaging US$13,800 per tonne across 2027, up 19% from the US$11,625 it previously forecast, and easing to US$13,600 by the fourth quarter of 2027 (J.P. Morgan Commodities Research, 21 August 2026).

Both banks have raised their copper forecasts in recent months. They split on what comes next. Goldman’s 2027 average sits above its own year-end forecast (see the table), a call for the climb to continue. J.P. Morgan’s 2027 average sits below its near-term peak, a call for a plateau. Two readings of how long the supply squeeze keeps pushing the price.

The World Bank is a third reference point and sits below both banks. Its Commodity Markets Outlook has copper averaging US$13,200 per tonne in 2026, which it says takes the metal to a record high, easing to US$13,000 in 2027. In April it had forecast US$12,000 and US$11,000 (World Bank, 28 October 2026).

The long-run demand side is where the research houses converge. S&P Global’s research projects copper demand reaching 42 million tonnes by 2040, a 50% increase from current levels, with a potential shortfall of about 10 million tonnes if supply does not expand meaningfully (S&P Global, 8 January 2026).

See our long-term copper investment case for how to weigh a moving near-term price forecast against a structural demand trend.

Why copper demand is structural, not cyclical

A one-year price forecast is a useful signal, but the more important question is whether the demand behind it is temporary or structural. On that question the banks and research houses line up with unusual consistency.

Electric vehicles are one driver. Wood Mackenzie expects copper demand from EVs to double by 2035 (Wood Mackenzie, 15 October 2025).

AI data centres are a newer, faster-moving driver. Wood Mackenzie expects data centre growth to lift copper demand for grid infrastructure alone to 1.1 million tonnes a year by 2030 (Wood Mackenzie, 15 October 2025).

The energy transition is the third leg. Wood Mackenzie expects copper demand from the sector to rise from 1.7 million tonnes a year to 4.3 million tonnes a year by 2035 (Wood Mackenzie, 15 October 2025).

None of these three drivers is contracted to the copper price. They are contracted to build-out schedules already underway: EV production lines, data centre construction, and grid upgrades governments and utilities have already funded. That is why this demand is structural, not cyclical, and does not disappear if the price dips for a quarter or two the way more discretionary industrial demand can.

See why copper demand is rising in our companion guide to the long-term investment case.

The supply gap: where is it coming from?

If demand is structural, the supply side is where the real uncertainty sits, and it is not really in dispute that new copper supply is struggling to keep up. The disagreement is about how large the gap gets and how fast.

A new copper mine takes about 17 years on average from discovery to first production, according to S&P Global (8 January 2026), and the IEA’s July 2026 Global Critical Minerals Outlook puts the lead time at around 17 years too. Copper that closes a 2030 demand gap has to come from a project already in development today.

The size of the gap varies by source. The IEA finds that, on the pipeline of existing and announced projects, global primary copper supply could face a 25% deficit in 2035 under today’s policy settings, narrower than the roughly 30% in last year’s Outlook as projects advanced in the DRC, Zambia, Peru and Canada (IEA, Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026, July 2026). S&P Global puts a potential shortfall at about 10 million tonnes by 2040 (S&P Global, 8 January 2026). Wood Mackenzie says the industry needs more than 8 million tonnes a year of new mine capacity and 3.5 million tonnes a year of additional scrap supply by 2035 to keep pace (Wood Mackenzie, 15 October 2025).

That long-run gap is not the same thing as the near-term refined balance. ICSG forecasts a refined surplus of about 104,000 tonnes in 2026 and about 368,000 tonnes in 2027, with world mine production growing 1.3% in 2026 and about 3.1% in 2027 (ICSG, 14 October 2026). J.P. Morgan describes the refined market as “pretty well supplied” (J.P. Morgan, 21 August 2026), and Wood Mackenzie expects a slight surplus in 2026 (Wood Mackenzie, 4 August 2026). The long-run warnings describe future mined supply, not a refined deficit in 2026 or 2027.

Goldman Sachs raised its forecasts on weaker-than-expected mine supply and deficits outside the United States (Reuters, via MINING.COM, 20 October 2026). The direction of the long-run gap is shared across sources; its size and timing are where they differ.

What higher copper prices mean for junior copper explorers

This is where the macro forecast connects to something more concrete, and to why investors are drawn to copper in the first place: what a wider gap between copper supply and demand does to the economics of a project that has not been built yet.

A junior copper explorer at the development stage carries fixed costs that do not move with the copper price: drilling, feasibility studies, permitting, and plant capital are largely locked in once a project reaches that stage. What does move is the revenue side. A higher realised copper price improves the net present value of a fixed ore body without the company doing anything differently, and can make the same project easier to finance. Pre-production projects are more sensitive to the copper price than an established producer, with no existing production stream to smooth the swings.

In April 2026, QIC’s Critical Minerals and Battery Technology Fund committed $15 million to QMines (ASX:QML), structured as a $5 million equity investment and a $10 million royalty over Mt Chalmers, making the project’s Definitive Feasibility Study fully funded, a real-world sign of how the junior-explorer thesis is landing with sophisticated capital.

On 6 July 2026, QMines announced that Queensland Government and QIC representatives, led by the Hon. Ros Bates MP, had visited Mt Chalmers to inspect progress, a government-backing signal alongside the institutional one.

None of this is a forecast of what QML shares will do. It describes how development-stage project economics respond to the macro backdrop above, using our Mt Chalmers copper-gold project in central Queensland, now advancing through a fully funded DFS, as the worked example.

ASX copper stocks and the 2027 forecast

The ASX gives investors access to copper at very different points on the risk curve. Large-cap producers such as BHP hold copper alongside iron ore, coal, and other commodities, diluting pure copper exposure but adding liquidity and dividend income. Copper-focused ETFs track the commodity price directly without single-company risk. Junior explorers sit at the other end: concentrated, pre-production, and structurally more leveraged to a copper price move because there is no existing production to average the swings out.

That leverage cuts both ways. Any investor weighing this copper price forecast for 2027 against the ASX copper universe should size a position with that in mind. See our complete guide to ASX copper stocks for how producers, mid-caps, and juniors compare, or our guide to copper mining in Queensland for the regional operating context behind projects like Mt Chalmers.

Frequently Asked Questions